In my view #BJP may win the up elections because of following reasons:-
1- Bjp is in out of power for almost 14 years, so no anti incumbency factor.
2- Infighting in sp resulted in almost no participation by mulyam singh who if active can effectively mobilize MY votes in sp's favor.
3-Minority voters are going to be divided between bsp and sp cong,since bsp has given more than hundred tickets to minority candidates.
4-non jatav dalit may drift towards saffron party.
5-Non-yadav obc may solidly back bjp because bjp given large number of tickets to obcs ( specially non-yadav).
6-bjp has tried to field the strongest candidate.this time amit shah overlooked everything against winnability.
7-congress vote may shift to bjp especially upper caste ( braman, thakur,baniya) etc.
8-Bjp used huge money for campaigning,( they have no dearth of money, they have solid support of big industrial and media houses.)
9-mayawati's methods of fighting elections are extremely outdated. so, her party will end up getting only her core votes plus some percentage of minority votes.
10- Normal public still thinks notebandi was good step but foiled by corrupt bank officers. So,almost no backlash of flop step.
1- Bjp is in out of power for almost 14 years, so no anti incumbency factor.
2- Infighting in sp resulted in almost no participation by mulyam singh who if active can effectively mobilize MY votes in sp's favor.
3-Minority voters are going to be divided between bsp and sp cong,since bsp has given more than hundred tickets to minority candidates.
4-non jatav dalit may drift towards saffron party.
5-Non-yadav obc may solidly back bjp because bjp given large number of tickets to obcs ( specially non-yadav).
6-bjp has tried to field the strongest candidate.this time amit shah overlooked everything against winnability.
7-congress vote may shift to bjp especially upper caste ( braman, thakur,baniya) etc.
8-Bjp used huge money for campaigning,( they have no dearth of money, they have solid support of big industrial and media houses.)
9-mayawati's methods of fighting elections are extremely outdated. so, her party will end up getting only her core votes plus some percentage of minority votes.
10- Normal public still thinks notebandi was good step but foiled by corrupt bank officers. So,almost no backlash of flop step.
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